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Fundamental Forex analysis for the week of April 13-17
Monday, April 13
No important macroeconomic publications are expected at the beginning of the week, but markets will continue to analyze Friday's US inflation data. Annual inflation in the USA in March slowed down to 1.5%, which increased the risks of another decrease in the refinancing rate of the Federal Reserve System and put pressure on the dollar. Monday will be a quiet trading day as Easter holidays continue in the US and Europe.
Tuesday, April 14
Tuesday will also turn out to be a fairly calm day, as the markets will work out American inflation, and no new reasons for trading activity are expected.
You should pay attention only to the housing price index in New Zealand. In China, late at night, data on imports, exports and the overall trade balance will become known.
Wednesday, April 15
Wednesday will present a large block of data on inflation in the largest economies of the eurozone (except Germany, which will publish statistics on Thursday). According to forecasts, a serious decline in consumer price growth is expected everywhere. Moreover, Spain and Italy may be on the verge of deflation. If current data confirm forecasts, the European Central Bank will be forced to reduce the refinancing rate to negative values.
The United States will provide data on retail sales: the base index may fall from -0.4% to -3%, and retail sales in March may collapse from -0.5% to -7%. The decline in industrial production may also resume.
On Thursday, you should also pay attention to the meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada: the refinancing rate is expected to decrease from 0.75% to 0.25%, which will negatively affect the Canadian dollar.
Thursday, April 16
Thursday will begin with the weakening of the Australian dollar, as experts expect weak data on the labor market. The unemployment rate should rise from 5.1% to 5.5%. The euro will continue to weaken, as Germany will also present its inflation statistics: a significant decrease is expected. You should also pay attention to data on industrial production in the eurozone.
With the opening of the American session, the dollar may weaken, as the United States will provide data on changes in the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits. If last week there were 7,455 thousand repeat applications, then this time there should be another 10,500 thousand.
In Japan, there will be data on foreign and Japanese investments in securities and an indicator of business activity in all sectors. Australia will present expectations for consumer price inflation, unemployment, full and part-time employment, and the share of labor in the total population.
Friday, April 17
On Friday, China will publish data on retail sales and industrial production, preliminary indicators of economic growth for the first quarter of 2020 and investment in urban services since the beginning of the year.
https://www.forexmart.eu/analytical-reviews/read-more/8131/Fundamental-Forex-analysis-for-the-week-of-April-13-17
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